we believe that the demand pull effect of government investment on equipment in 2013 will be expanded and the railway equipment industry will benefit most; the investment in fixed assets of real estate and manufacturing industry will rebound substantially; the demand for international market is recovering, and the dominant enterprises will win in the competition. the investment strategy puts forward the three stage theory, focusing on the construction machinery and railway equipment industry.
judging from the historical valuation of the machinery industry, pe is at a minimum of 15 times, and pb is 1.8 times. the price of steel is rising in a mild period, and the share price of machinery is also rising synchronously; when the price of steel is rising, falling or slumping, the mechanical stock is usually poor; the price of steel is rising and the machinery industry's profit is speeding up as the opportunity to invest in machinery stock.
engineering slag removal machinery industry advantages of leading enterprises will win. in terms of domestic demand, government investment in 2012 is still slightly higher than that of this year, and real estate and manufacturing investment in fixed assets will rebound sharply. in terms of foreign demand, a review of the impact of the three major global economic crises over the past thirty years on the construction machinery industry, even in japan in the great recession of 90s, has not seen more than three years of negative growth in construction machinery sales, and the impact of the financial crisis on the united states and european machinery market has been close to three years. the low capital expenditure is ahead of schedule. we expect that demand in europe and the us will rebound rapidly in 2013. the competition pattern of construction machinery industry changed slightly in 2010, and the promising subdivision industry: concrete machinery, hydraulic excavator and forklift truck.
the railway equipment industry will enter a peak period of delivery, and its profit will increase significantly. 2013 will be the first year for railway investment to accelerate from infrastructure to equipment industry. the delivery of vehicle orders will accelerate, and the industry revenue and profits will be greatly improved compared to the same period. emu, high-power electric locomotives and urban rail transit have benefited from mileage increase and electrification rate, and the growth prospects are clear. in addition, under the circumstances of economic crisis and global warming, various governments have introduced large-scale railway investment plans. china south car has independent intellectual property rights, and the advantage of first mover will enable it to share the global railway investment feast, and the potential for export growth in the future will be unlimited.
